The Tamil Nadu elections, which is due on 16th of May 2016 is going to be a tough fight for the two of the regional biggies AIADMK and DMK. This election, the number of surveys have been proliferating and everyone is speculating about the next government. Tamil channel News7, in association with the daily Dinamalar predicted that AIADMK would win about 87 seats, DMK 141 seats, DMDK one seat, PMK two seats, BJP one seat and others about two seats. The other survey by Father Gasper Raj, a close acquaintance of Kanimozhi, predicted that DMK will win between 127 and 139 seats, the AIADMK between 81 and 90 seats and others would get 14-17 seats. Yet another news channel, Cauvery News predicted that DMK would get 125 seats, AIADMK would get 79 seats, and others 30 seats. Contrary to the common belief and many other popular surveys, Times Now C-survey predicted an AIADMK win with 130 seats, with DMK getting 70 seats, the BJP scoring a zero and others claiming about 34 seats.
If I say that let me also explore the options and speculate a bit. In that case, I will be just speculating as most of these surveys are vague and there is no clear groundswell in other wise politically hyper active state. With each new survey comes a whole new set of margins on vote shares. If we have to average out the vote share of AIADMK and DMK, both are scoring around 35 + percent. The numbers are very confusing, and unconvincing and results are frustrating for me, and many other mature political analysts. Most of the surveys do not appear to be scientific.
In my views, the survey results of most of these agencies, and media houses are politically motivated. It looks like the numbers are thrown open to public at large to influence the fence seaters, and convert them to their advantage. These surveys are not representing the right facts and the results of most of these surveys are very different from ground level trends.
I have spoken to a few of my friends from the state and all I feel is that the opinions of the people are much different from the surveys. All we can do is wait for 19th of May – the judgement day.